SUSTAINABILITY MODELS OF THE FUNDS OF THE ECUADORIAN SOCIAL SECURITY INSTITUTE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.10.04Keywords:
Contributions, Pensions, Monte Carlo Method, Markov Chains, Markov Chains, Least Squares.Abstract
Pension systems around the world have evolved dynamically, it is necessary to achieve the sustainability of the system to provide its contributors and pensioners with confidence in the model. For the IESS pension system, it is important to obtain predictions to warn stakeholders what could happen if corrective measures are not taken. The IESS pension sustainability predictions were obtained using the Markov Monte Carlo Chains (CMMC) and Least Squares method, using data from January 1, 2012 to June 30, 2022 and their processing with the GNU Octave Software. The results of the models reveal that the pension system would be sustainable until December 2023; therefore, the authorities should implement the appropriate strategies to sustain the system.
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