ISSN No. 2631-2743

NIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE CHIMBORAZO

FACULTAD DE

CIENCIAS POLÍTICAS Y

ADMINISTRATIVAS

Recibido: 30/05/2025

Aceptado: 27/09/2025

KAIRÓS, Vol. (9) No. 16, pp. 158-182, enero - junio 2026

Nadia Sinta Rindiani

nadiashintarindiani@gmail.com

Department of Economics

IPB University

(Bogor - West Java – Indonesia)

ORCID: 0009-0009-5468-734X

Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin

sulthon.sjahril@kemlu.go.id

Centre of Policy Strategy for Special

Issues and Data Analysis

Ministry of Foreign Aairs of the

Republic of Indonesia

(Jakarta – Indonesia)

ORCID: 0000-0002-9555-5599

Mochammad As'adur Roq

asadur.r@kemlu.go.id

Centre of Policy Strategy for Special

Issues and Data Analysis

Ministry of Foreign Aairs of the

Republic of Indonesia

(Jakarta – Indonesia)

ORCID: 0009-0009-2275-9513

INDONESIA–ANGOLA

TRADE AND INVESTMENT

POTENTIAL: A PRODUCT

CLASSIFICATION MODEL

USING REVEALED

COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

AND CONSTANT MARKET

SHARE ANALYSIS

POTENCIAL DE COMERCIO E

INVERSIÓN ENTRE INDONESIA

Y ANGOLA: UN MODELO

DE CLASIFICACIÓN DE

PRODUCTOS BASADO EN

LA VENTAJA COMPARATIVA

REVELADA Y EL ANÁLISIS DE

PARTICIPACIÓN CONSTANTE EN

EL MERCADO

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

ISSN No. 2631-2743

KAIRÓS, Vol. (9) No. 16, pp. 158-182, enero - junio 2026

Abstract

Indonesia and Angola have cordial diplomatic relations,

but the economic cooperation is limited. This study uses

the RCA-CMSA Product Classication Model to identify

potential trade and investment opportunities. The study

reveals that Indonesian export opportunities include palm oil

and ferro alloys; meanwhile, Angolan export opportunities

include petroleum and gas. In the investment sphere,

Indonesian potential inbound investment from Angola

includes cocoa and coee. There is no suggested Indonesian

outbound investment in Angola, but it could refer to the

investment oer by AIPEX and Angola's SEZs to support

Angola’s economic diversication agenda. The study also

suggests extending technical cooperation and establishing

the Indonesia-Angola PTA to elevate the economic relations.

Keywords: RCA-CMSA product classication,

economic diplomacy, trade, investment, Preferential Trade

Agreement

Resumen

Indonesia y Angola mantienen relaciones diplomáticas

cordiales, pero la cooperación económica es limitada. Este

estudio utiliza el Modelo de Clasicación de Productos

RCA-CMSA para identicar posibles oportunidades

de comercio e inversión. El estudio revela que las

oportunidades de exportación para Indonesia incluyen aceite

de palma y ferroaleaciones, mientras que las oportunidades

de exportación para Angola incluyen petróleo y gas. En

el ámbito de la inversión, la posible inversión indonesia

proveniente de Angola incluye cacao y café. No se ha

sugerido ninguna inversión indonesia en Angola, pero se

podría hacer referencia a la oferta de inversión de AIPEX y

las ZEE de Angola para apoyar la agenda de diversicación

económica del país. El estudio también sugiere ampliar

la cooperación técnica y establecer un Acuerdo de Libre

Comercio entre Indonesia y Angola para impulsar las

relaciones económicas.

Palabras clave: Clasicación de productos RCA-

CMSA, diplomacia económica, comercio, inversión,

Acuerdo Comercial Preferencial.

INDONESIA–ANGOLA

TRADE AND INVESTMENT

POTENTIAL: A PRODUCT

CLASSIFICATION MODEL

USING REVEALED

COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

AND CONSTANT MARKET

SHARE ANALYSIS

POTENCIAL DE COMERCIO E

INVERSIÓN ENTRE INDONESIA

Y ANGOLA: UN MODELO

DE CLASIFICACIÓN DE

PRODUCTOS BASADO EN

LA VENTAJA COMPARATIVA

REVELADA Y EL ANÁLISIS DE

PARTICIPACIÓN CONSTANTE

EN EL MERCADO

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

160

Introduction

Diplomatic relations between Indonesia and Angola have been established since 7th August

2001, and soon after, the Embassy of the Republic of Indonesia in Windhoek was accredited to

the Republic of Angola in 2004. More recently, in 2024, the Government of Angola established

its Embassy in Jakarta, which had previously been based in Singapore and accredited to cover

the Republic of Indonesia, and on 30th April 2025, the Angolan mission oce was ocially

inaugurated (MoFA, 2025). This illustrates the increasingly close relationship between the two

countries since the commencement of diplomatic relations in 2001.

For more than two decades, the two countries have had an excellent friendship based on

common interests, mutual respect, and people-to-people contact. The bilateral relationship is

characterized by increased cooperation across trade, tourism, education, and technical areas,

as well as harmonious coordination in the various multilateral fora of which both countries

are members. Furthermore, the two nations have strengthened and expanded their partnership

under the South-South Cooperation framework, guided by a shared vision of a peaceful and

stable region, and by mutual respect for each other's independence, sovereignty, territorial

integrity, and political systems.

The development of bilateral relations has strong momentum, with the visit of the Vice

President of Angola, H.E. Manuel Vicente, to Indonesia on 31st October – 3rd November 2014,

aimed at strengthening relations between the two countries. The visit was followed by Angola’s

Minister of Foreign Aairs, H.E. Georges Rebelo Pinto Chikoti, to Indonesia on 10-13 April

2017, to enhance cooperation between the two countries, including identifying potential areas

for cooperation and attracting investment. Most recently, on 2nd September 2024, during the

sidelines of the 2nd Indonesia-Africa Forum (IAF) in Bali, Indonesian Foreign Minister, Retno

Marsudi, held a bilateral meeting with Angola’s Minister of State and Chief of Sta, Adão

de Almeida. The discussion focused on enhancing cooperation, particularly in trade, agro-

industry, and sheries (MoFA, 2024).

Both countries have also established several agreements, namely: General Agreement between

the Government of the Republic of Indonesia and the Government of the Republic of Angola on

Economic, Scientic, Technical and Cultural Cooperation (Jakarta, 11 April 2017), Memorandum

of Understanding between the Ministry of Foreign Aairs of the Republic of Indonesia and the

Ministry of External Relations of the Republic of Angola on Political Consultation (Jakarta, 11

April 2011), Agreement on Mutual Abolition of Visas for the Holders of Diplomatic and Service

Passports Indonesia and Angola (Jakarta, 11 April 2017), Joint Communique Concerning the

Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the Government of the Republic of Indonesia

and the Government of the Republic of Angola (New York, 7 August 2001), and Memorandum

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

market share analysis

161

of Understanding between Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Câmara de

Comércio e Indústria Angola (Luanda, 15 November 2017).

In an eort to promote Indonesia-Angola economic cooperation, the Indonesian Embassy

in Windhoek has, over the years, actively participated in the Feira Internacional de Luanda

(FILDA), Angola's largest trade fair, and organized Indonesia-Angola business fora in Luanda.

These promotions are intended to increase cooperation in trade, investment, and tourism, and

encourage people-to-people contact. For people-to-people relations, although the number is

still relatively small, dozens of Indonesian citizens live in Angola, most of whom work in the

oil and gas industry and the hospitality sector, as well as serving as pastors and nuns. On the

other hand, some Angolans choose Indonesia as their vacation and study destination.

Within the trade sphere, Indonesia-Angola bilateral trade value has shown an increasing trend

over the past ve years, rising from US$129 million in 2020 to US$1.88 billion in 2024.

However, Indonesia's trade balance with Angola has been negative. In 2020, Indonesia recorded

a surplus of US$70.8 million, but by 2024 it shifted to a decit of US$1.55 billion. In 2024,

Indonesia's exports to Angola totaled US$164 million, while imports from Angola reached

US$1.71 billion (Trade Map, 2025a). Indonesia’s exports mainly consisted of non-oil and gas

products, including palm oil, soap, steel and iron, paper, margarine, excavator mechanical

shovels, and matches. Meanwhile, Indonesia's imports from Angola were dominated by

petroleum and aluminum.

To foster trade relations between the two countries, the Indonesian Government has submitted

a zero draft of the Indonesia-Angola Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) to the Angolan

Government in September 2017. During the meeting between the Indonesian Foreign Minister

and the Angolan State Secretary on the sidelines of the 2nd Indonesia-Africa Forum (IAF), the

Indonesian Foreign Minister hoped that negotiations on the Indonesia-Angola PTA could be

concluded soon. The Indonesian Foreign Minister explained that the Indonesia-Angola PTA

can serve as a solid foundation for strengthening bilateral economic relations and creating more

business and investment opportunities for both countries (MoFA 2024). The two parties agreed

on the importance of strengthening economic cooperation and becoming a joint priority amid

the positive political relations between the two countries. Both parties also agreed to diversify

economic commodities, continue exploring various potential sectors, and strengthen concrete

cooperation between the two countries, especially in the oil, mineral, health, downstream

industry, and food security sectors, including agro-industry and sheries.

Economic diplomacy is a priority in Indonesia's foreign policy. Under President Prabowo

Subianto's administration for the 2024-2029 period, Indonesian diplomacy will continue to

be directed toward supporting the achievement of the Asta Cita grand vision by upholding the

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

162

values of Pancasila and the principle of a free and active foreign policy. Indonesia's diplomacy

aims to promote fairer trade, expand market access for Indonesian products abroad, and attract

investments that align with national priorities. Indonesia focuses on strengthening strategic

partnerships with non-traditional market partners and on its outbound investment destinations

(Ariesta, 2025).

One potential non-traditional market for Indonesia is Africa (Sjahril, 2021). The African region

is classied as an “emerging economy” and has become a target of economic diplomacy by

global countries. Africa has become a region increasingly taken into account on the global

economic map, driven in part by its expanding consumer market. In the last two decades,

household spending in Sub-Saharan Africa has increased 150% faster than its population

growth. Moreover, according to Landry Signé of the Brookings Institution, total household

consumption in Africa is projected to reach US$2.1 trillion by 2025 and increase to US$2.5

trillion by 2030 (Ngari, 2020).

Angola, one of the largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, oers signicant opportunities

for Indonesian trade and investment. Angola has signicant agricultural potential, with fertile

soil and a favorable climate that could support diversication of the food supply (Vidal,

2024). Angola is also known as one of the world's largest exporters of oil, natural gas, and

diamonds. Beyond diamonds, Angola is estimated to hold considerable mineral potential,

with vast unexplored areas believed to contain signicant reserves of important minerals and

rare earth elements, such as copper, cobalt, manganese, and lithium, all of which are vital for

technological advancement and renewable energy initiatives (Vidal, 2024).

Geographically, Angola serves as a key gateway connecting global and regional markets. The

country enjoys direct maritime access to major trading partners, including Brazil, the United

States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and China. Additionally, its land and railway

networks link Angola to neighboring countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo,

Zambia, the Republic of Congo (Congo–Brazzaville), and the Central African Republic. This

strategic position establishes Angola as an ideal transit point for the distribution of goods

(AIPEX, 2021).

Despite its considerable potential, bilateral economic relations between Indonesia and Angola

remain relatively limited. Therefore, the study to strengthen Indonesia-Angola bilateral

economic relations is deemed necessary. This study will systematically identify potential trade

and investment opportunities for both countries. By understanding each country's economic

structure and investment needs, both can leverage their sectoral advantages to develop a more

comprehensive, mutually benecial economic relationship.

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

market share analysis

163

Theoretical framework

The Minister of Foreign Aairs of the Republic of Indonesia, Decree No. 04/B/PR/08/2024/01

of Year 2024, dened economic diplomacy and Economic Intelligence Data (DEI). Economic

diplomacy is the implementation of diplomatic policies in bilateral, regional, and multilateral

relations to promote national welfare and to protect and advance national economic interests

across elds such as trade, investment, tourism, labor, nance, and international development

cooperation. Meanwhile, DEI refers to information and analytical studies in the economic

sector, including trade, investment, tourism, services, nance, and development, related to the

accredited country or region, which are strategic for decision-making, policy formulation, and

the advancement of Indonesia's economic diplomacy eorts. Therefore, DEI serves as a critical

component in supporting Indonesia’s economic diplomacy initiatives.

Indonesia's trade and investment cooperation relations with partner countries are one of

the important economic intelligence pieces of information to support Indonesian economic

diplomacy. The trade and investment areas are crucial elements in supporting Indonesia's

development trident strategy (trisula pembangunan), which focuses on achieving sustainable

high economic growth, reducing poverty, and developing high-quality human resources.

One of the objectives of Indonesia’s economic diplomacy is to enhance the performance of

Indonesia’s foreign trade and investment relations with partner countries to support the national

development agenda. Under the Prabowo administration, Indonesia's development trident is

guided by the National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN) 2025-2045, while the National

Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2025-2029 serves as a detailed articulation of the

President’s vision, mission, and priorities, collectively known as Astacita.

In assessing the potential development of Indonesia's trade and investment cooperation relations

with partner countries, information on the potential and opportunities of the accredited countries

is needed. One critical piece of information is identifying key sectors and commodities for trade

and investment. Theoretically, such potential can be partially assessed by the country’s export

competitiveness. Export competitiveness means that a country's export commodities have

comparative and competitive advantages over those of other exporting countries. Comparative

advantage is a measure of potential advantage based on the ability to sell or produce goods

from a company, region, or country under market conditions that tend to be perfect competition

(no market distortions), while competitive advantage is an indicator of the competitiveness of

an activity based on actual market conditions (Karo-karo, 2010). In the analysis of a country's

export competitiveness, two trade indices that are often used namely Revealed Comparative

Advantage (RCA) and Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA).

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

164

The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) is an index that measures a country's comparative

advantage or disadvantage in international trade based on its export patterns. This concept was

rst introduced by Balassa (1965). RCA measures a country's level of export specialization

in a particular product by comparing the proportion of that product's exports to total national

exports with a similar proportion at the global level. This index is based on David Ricardo's

theory of comparative advantage, which holds that a country is more competitive when it

produces and exports goods more eciently than other countries. Mathematically, the RCA

index can be expressed as follows:

(1)

Description:

• Xijt: export value of product i from country j in period t.

• Xijt: total exports of country j in period t.

• Xiwt: export value of product i in the world market in period t.

• Xwt:total world exports in period t.

Based on the mathematical calculation above, a product is considered competitive in the global

market if its RCA index is greater than 1. Conversely, if the RCA value is less than 1, the

product is considered to have a comparative disadvantage (RCD).

Another index commonly used to analyze the competitiveness performance of a country's

export products is the Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA) index. CMSA is an analytical

tool used to identify the sources of a country's export growth by separating external (such as

global demand) and internal factors (such as competitiveness). This method was rst introduced

by Tyszynski (1951) to evaluate whether changes in a country's export market share are due

to global market growth or to its competitive ability. Over time, CMSA has been rened by

researchers such as Leamer and Stern (1970) and Fagerberg and Sollie (1987), who expanded

the analytical framework by incorporating structural variables such as commodity composition

and market adaptation.

In general, changes in a country's exports under the CMSA framework are decomposed into

three main eects. First, the import growth eect (CMSA1), which reects the impact of

increased import demand in the destination country on the exporting country's performance.

This eect is passive, as it does not depend on the country's eorts. Second, the commodity

composition eect (CMSA2), which measures the extent to which a country's export structure

aligns with global commodity growth trends. Third, the competitiveness eect (CMSA3), which

is a key indicator of a country's ability to maintain or increase market share amid competition.

Mathematically, the CMSA calculation can be expressed as follows:

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

market share analysis

165

(2)

CMSA = CMSA1 + CMSA2 + CMSA3

Description:

= Global Factor or General Factor (CMSA1).

= Global Commodity Share or Composition Factor (CMSA2).

= National Global Factor / Comparative Factor (CMSA3).

Kiki Verico (2020) introduced the RCA-CMSA Product Classication Model, combining the

RCA and CMSA trade indices to analyze bilateral economic relations between countries. RCA is

used to assess a product's static position, while CMSA is used to evaluate its dynamic behavior.

Both indices compare a country's trade performance with the global market. CMSA consists

of three models, and this study refers to Verico's (2020) study, which applied a combination of

RCA and comparative factors in a model called CMSA3. The CMSA3 (Comparative Factor)

parameter is the focus of his study because it can identify the competitiveness of a country's

export products in the destination market.

The RCA-CMSA Product Classication Model analysis compares the competitiveness of

products globally and classies them into four categories, namely: Great (RCA>1; CMSA>0),

Sunrise (RCA<1; CMSA>0), Sunset (RCA>1; CMSA<0), and Suer (RCA<1; CMSA<0)

(Verico, 2020). The classication quadrant based on the RCA-CMSA3 Product Classication

Model combination can be seen in Figure 1 below:

Figure 1. The Classication Quadrant of RCA-CMSA3 Product Classication Model

Source: Verico (2020)

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

166

In the study by Verico (2020), the combination of the RCA-CMSA Product Classication

Model yielded economic diplomacy policy recommendations: trade (if great to great and

suer to suer), outbound FDI (if sunrise to sunset), and inbound FDI (if sunset to sunrise).

Furthermore, in 2025, during a training program organized by theCenter for Policy Strategy on

Special Issues and Data Analysis, Ministry of Foreign Aairs of the Republic of Indonesia, in

collaboration with theInstitute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and

Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI), Kiki Verico further developed the RCA-

CMSA Product Classication Model, detailing the economic diplomacy policy recommendation

classications as follows:

Table 1. RCA-CMSA Product Classication Model

Source: Verico (2020); Verico & Riefky (2022); and Verico (2025).

For the RCA-CMSA product classication model developed by Kiki Verico, Didi Ristanto (2024)

published an article that used the RCA-CMSA matrix to examine Indonesia’s trade potential

with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), comprising Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,

Kyrgyzstan, and the Russian Federation. The study reveals the potential for detailed trade and

investment relations between Indonesia and the EAEU countries.

Data and research methodology

This study aims to map and analyze the potential for trade and investment between Indonesia and

Angola through a market intelligence approach, using the RCA-CMSA Product Classication

Model developed by Verico (2020). Non-traditional market regions, such as Sub-Saharan

Africa, oer great opportunities for Indonesia's export market diversication (Delanova, 2021).

Great

Suffer

Sunrise

Sunset

Suffer

Great

Sunrise

Sunset

Great

Suffer

Sunrise

Sunset

Great

Suffer

Sunrise

Sunset

Sunrise

Suffer

Sunset

Great

None

Trade

None

Trade

None

FDI Outbound

FDI Inbound

None

Export

Import

FDI Outbound

FDI Inbound

Import

RCA-CMSA3_RI RCA-CMSA3_ANG

Verico (2020)

Verico (2025)

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

market share analysis

167

As one of the largest countries in Africa, Angola has signicant market potential. To maximize

this opportunity, this study mapped and identied Indonesian trade and investment products

that have competitive advantages and growth potential in the Angolan market (and vice versa).

The RCA approach is used to measure Indonesia's comparative advantage in its export products

in 2023 by comparing them with global exports. In this study, the RCA calculation uses 2023

data to assess the competitiveness position of Indonesia’s products in the Angolan market,

and vice versa. Meanwhile, CMSA is applied to analyze the market share dynamics of these

products over two time periods, namely 2021 and 2023. In this case, the CMSA results are

used to see the dynamics of changes in the competitiveness of Indonesian products in the

Angolan market, and vice versa. This combination of RCA and CMSA not only helps identify

competitive products but also reveals the long-term trade and investment relationships between

Indonesia and its partner countries (Verico, 2022).

In applying the RCA-CMSA model, this study made some adjustments to the product

classication methodology. First, the term “suer” in the classication was changed to

“saturated” to reect products that have low RCA and CMSA values. The results of product

mapping based on 4-digit HS codes were then grouped into four categories: Great (RCA >

1; CMSA > 0), Sunrise (RCA < 1; CMSA > 0), Sunset (RCA > 1; CMSA < 0), and Saturated

(RCA < 1; CMSA < 0) (Verico, 2025). Second, this study also modied the classication

denitions from Verico (2025). The RCA-CMSA product classication model approach

provides a strategic overview of Indonesia's market expansion and investment in Angola (and

vice versa). This classication plays an important role in determining product priorities for trade

and investment diplomacy strategies. The summary of the RCA-CMSA product classication

model modication is presented below.

Table 2. RCA-CMSA Product Classication Model

Great

Saturated

Great

Sunrise

Sunset

Great

Saturated

Sunrise

Sunset

None

Trade

None

Trade

None

Export

Import

Export

Import

Export

Import

RCA-CMSA3_RI Verico (2020) Verico (2025) Final

RCA-

CMSA3_ANG

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

168

Source: Modied from Verico (2020), Verico & Riefky (2022), and Verico (2025)

The data used in this study are sourced from TradeMap and the World Integrated Trade

Solution (WITS), with product classication based on the Harmonized System at the 4-digit

level (HS-4), covering the period from 2021 to 2023. In addition to mapping potential trade

and investment products, this study also identies broader prospects and opportunities for

economic cooperation between Indonesia and Angola. The analytical framework used in this

study is shown in detail in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. Analysis Framework

Source: Modied by the Authors (2025)

The rst step in this study involves identifying and mapping potential products for trade and

investment opportunities between Indonesia and Angola (and vice versa) using the RCA-CMSA

Product Classication Model. Once the potential products are identied, the study selects 20

key products prioritized for development under respective bilateral trade (export and import)

and investment (inbound and outbound) strategies. These products are selected and ranked

based on Indonesia's highest export value to the world and to Angola, and vice versa, in 2024.

Furthermore, this study will review other potential economic cooperation between Indonesia

and Angola from the relevant literature. Based on the ndings, this study aims to provide policy

recommendations to strengthen Indonesia–Angola bilateral economic relations, particularly

trade (exports and imports) and investment (inbound and outbound).

Trade Indexes: Product

Identification

Product List

Identification and

Analysis

Identify Priority Products

and List of 20 Main

Potential Products

Revealed

Comparative

Constant Market

Share Analysis

(CMSA)

RCA-CMSA Product

Classification

(Verico, 2020)

Analysis of Potential and

Opportunities for Other

Economic Cooperation

Economic Diplomacy

Recommendations: Trade

(Export and Import) and

Investment (Inbound and

Outbound)

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

(Ecuador). ISSN 2631-2743. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37135/kai.03.16.08

Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

market share analysis

169

Results and discussion

In this chapter, the results and discussion of the market intelligence analysis of Indonesia-

Angola economic relations are divided into 2 main sections. The rst section presents the

identication and mapping of Indonesia's potential products to Angola (and vice versa) using

the RCA-CMSA Product Classication Model. The second section discusses the potential and

opportunities for other economic cooperation between Indonesia and Angola.

Indonesia-Angola Potential Product Identication and RCA-CMSA Product Mapping

Results

The results of the RCA-CMSA product mapping analysis show that there are 1039 potential

HS-4 product combinations between Indonesia and Angola, with the majority of products in

the saturated and sunrise categories.

Table 3. Indonesia-Angola Potential Product RCA-CMSA Results

Source: Author Processed from the Trade Map (2025)

Based on the RCA-CMSA product classication, there are 348 Indonesian export products

opportunities to Angola; meanwhile, Angolan potential export opportunities to Indonesia

amounted to 645 products. Meanwhile, for potential investment cooperation, 46 products

are suggested for Indonesian inbound investment from Angola, while none are suggested for

Indonesian outbound investment in Angola.

Indonesia's Potential Export Product Strategy in the Angolan Market

The RCA-CMSA product mapping analysis shows that Indonesia has 348 potential export

HS-4 products to the Angolan market, and of these, 20 are the main products by export value

from Indonesia to the world in 2024. The complete list of 20 potential products for Indonesian

exports to Angola is shown in Table 4.

Combination

Saturated

Sunset

Sunrise

Great

Total

Saturated

249

199

542

Sunset

Sunrise

199

180

480

Great

Total

454

386

111

1039

Angola

Indonesia

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

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170

Table 4. Top 20 Potential Indonesian Export Products in the Angolan Market

HS-4

Code Product Description

0.00

-4.283

0.00 0

0.00

-324

0.00

0.20

0.01

198

148

-23

-1

-64

100

-56

461 Sunrise

Sunrise

Saturated

RCA RI CMSA RI Class RI Class ANG

RCA

ANG

CMSA

ANG

RI -

ANG*

RI -

WORLD**

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Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

market share analysis

171

*Indonesia's export value to Angola in 2023, thousand US$

** Indonesia's export value to the world in 2023, thousand US$

Source: processed from Trade Map (2025)

Based on the RCA-CMSA analysis, Indonesia's primary export potential to Angola is palm

oil and its fractions, whether or not rened (excl. chemically modied) (HS 1511), which

recorded a very high RCA score. This indicates Indonesia's global competitive advantage in

palm oil products. Indonesia ranked as the world’s largest exporter of palm oil in 2023, far

above Malaysia and the Netherlands (Trade Map, 2025b). However, in the context of Angola,

Indonesia is the second-largest supplier, with US$75087, while Angola's main palm oil

imports come from Malaysia, amounting to US$77446. This reects both the challenges and

opportunities for Indonesia to strengthen its market penetration in Angola.

Besides palm oil, other potential export products to the Angolan market are ferro alloys (HS

7202), copper ores and concentrates (HS 2603), motor cars and other motor vehicles principally

designed for transport (HS 8703), and cigars of tobacco (HS 2402). Although these products

have high RCA and CMSA-3 indices globally, their competitiveness in Angola is weak. But for

uncoated paper and paperboard (HS4802) and margarine (HS 1516), these Indonesian products

have high RCA and CMSA-3 indices in the global market, and their competitiveness in Angola

is relatively strong. Other potential Indonesian export products to Angola include various

footwear, machines, and metal products.

By understanding these potential products, Indonesia can tailor its export strategy to improve

competitiveness in the Angolan market. This includes the current proposed trade cooperation,

Indonesia-Angola Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA), and the product promotion strategy

(i.e., participating in trade fairs, trade missions, and business forums) adjust its strategy to the

local market demand and its product potentialities.

Indonesia's Potential Import Products from Angola

The RCA-CMSA product mapping analysis identies 645 HS-4 products that Indonesia has

the potential to import from Angola. Among these potential products, 20 main products have

been prioritized based on their highest export value from the rest of the world to Indonesia in

2024 (or Indonesian imports from the rest of the world). The complete list of Indonesia's top 20

potential import products from Angola is presented in Table 5.

Table 5. Top 20 Potential Import Products of Indonesia from Angola Market

0.20

16.36

0.00

3.27

0.00

0.07

0.00

0.0

0.01

0.00

0.08

0.00

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

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172

*Angola's export value to Indonesia in 2023, thousand US$

** World's export value to Indonesia in 2023, thousand US$

Source: processed from Trade Map (2025).

0.20

16.36

0.00

3.27

0.00

0.07

0.00

0.0

0.01

0.00

0.08

0.00

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Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

market share analysis

173

Based on the RCA-CMSA analysis, the main potential import products from Angola are

petroleum and bitumen oil (HS 2710), crude petroleum oil (HS 2709), and petroleum gas and

other gaseous hydrocarbons (HS 2711). Indonesia's demand for these commodities is very

high, reected in the value of Indonesia's global imports in 2023 (Trade Map, 2025c). Given

Indonesia's relatively low RCA for these products, imports from Angola could be a potential

option to fulll Indonesian domestic energy demand. However, this import strategy also needs

to be balanced with an accelerated clean energy transition to reduce dependence on non-

renewable energy sources.

In addition to the energy sector, Angola also oers other potential products that Indonesia

can import, such as telephone sets (HS 8517), electronic integrated circuits (HS 8542), gold

(HS 7108), various metal products, machinery, and other transportation equipment. Indonesia’s

strong domestic demand for these products oers a signicant opportunity for Angola to expand

trade cooperation. Meanwhile, in the agro-industrial sector, there are potential import products

from Angola, including oilcake and other solid residues (HS 2304), cane or beet sugar (HS

1701), rice (HS 1006), and wheat and meslin (HS 1001).

To capitalize on these opportunities, the Angolan export strategy to Indonesia should focus on

products aligned with Indonesia's economic transformation and sustainability goals outlined

in the National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN) 2025–2045 (Sekretariat RPJPN 2025-

2045, 2025). With a well-directed trade strategy, both countries can maximize the benets

of their trade relations while remaining focused on economic transformation and sustainable

growth toward Indonesia Emas 2045 (Indonesia Golden 2045).

Indonesia's Potential Inbound Investment from Angola

The RCA-CMSA analysis identies 46 HS-4 products as potential targets for Indonesian

inbound investment (FDI) from Angola, with 20 key products prioritized based on Indonesia’s

2024 exports to Angola. The complete list of the top 20 potential inbound FDI products from

Angola is presented in Table 6.

Table 6. Top 20 Potential Inbound FDI Products of Angola in Indonesia

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

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*Indonesia's export value to Angola in 2023, thousand US$

Source: processed from Trade Map (2025)

Based on the RCA-CMSA product classication results, Cocoa powder, not containing added

sugar or other sweetening matter (HS 1805), and Cocoa butter, fat, and oil (HS 1804) emerge as

the rst suggested products for Angola to invest in Indonesia. In Indonesia, cocoa is currently in

a saturated market condition, as indicated by its negative CMSA value. Therefore, investment

from Angola could be strategically directed toward cocoa cultivation and the downstream

processing of cocoa into higher-value-added products, such as cocoa powder, cocoa butter,

cocoa fat, and cocoa oil.

In the agro-industrial sector, Angola is also suggested to invest in commodities such as coee

(HS 0901), pepper (HS 0904), our, meal and powder of peas, beans, lentils and other dried

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

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Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

market share analysis

175

leguminous vegetables (HS 1106), starches inulin (HS 1108), fruits, nuts and other edible parts

of plants, prepared or preserved, whether or not containing (HS 2008), and extracts, essences

and concentrates, of coee, tea or maté and preparations (HS 2101). It is also expected that

these agro-commodities will further develop into higher-value-added downstream products.

In the manufacturing sector, additional opportunities exist in products such as acyclic alcohols

(HS 2905), monitors and projectors, not incorporating television reception apparatus; reception

apparatus (HS 8528), motorcycles, incl. mopeds, and cycles tted with an auxiliary motor, with

or without side-cars (HS 8711), Cement, incl. cement clinkers, whether or not coloured (HS

2523), Halogenated derivatives of hydrocarbons (HS 2903), Saturated acyclic monocarboxylic

acids and their anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids (HS 2915), Oxygen-function

amino-compounds (HS 2922), and Mineral or chemical nitrogenous fertilisers (HS 3102).

All of these recommended potential investments in Indonesia from Angola would be welcome

as the suggested Angolan investments are aligned with the downstream industrialization agenda

and the strengthening of natural resource-based industries outlined in the RPJPN 2025–2045

(Indonesian Long-Term Plan 2025-2045). The presence of such inbound investment (FDI)

could serve as a catalyst for industrial transformation by facilitating technology transfer,

improving production eciency, and fostering innovation-driven research (Lase, 2024). To

maximize the potential inbound investment, collaboration with local industry players and

research institutions is essential to ensure eective technology transfer and the development of

human resource capacity (Hailu, 2024).

Potential opportunities for broader economic cooperation between Indonesia and Angola

The trade relationship between Indonesia and Angola has shown a steady upward trend. In

2020, bilateral trade totaled US$129 million, and by 2024, it had surged to US$1.88 billion

(Trade Map, 2025). This signicant increase has primarily been driven by Indonesia’s rapidly

growing oil and gas imports from Angola, which rose from US$26.5 million in 2020 to US$1.71

billion in 2024. On the other hand, Angola remains a promising market for Indonesia’s non-oil

and gas exports in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the growth in non-oil and gas exports from

Indonesia to Angola has been relatively modest, increasing from US$100.2 million in 2020

to US$164.7 million in 2024 (Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia, 2025). Despite

this generally positive trend, the current trade value still falls short of its potential and could be

further expanded. To boost bilateral trade volumes, one policy measure worth considering is

the establishment of a bilateral free trade agreement.

The Indonesian government submitted a zero draft of the Indonesia-Angola Preferential Trade

Agreement (PTA) to the Angolan Government in 2017. On the sidelines of the 2nd IAF, during

the meeting, the Indonesian Foreign Minister conveyed to the Minister of State Secretary

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

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176

of Angola that negotiations on the Indonesia-Angola PTA agreement should be carried out

immediately to strengthen economic relations between the two countries. The year 2026 will

mark the 25th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Indonesia and Angola, presenting a

strategic opportunity to advance the PTA initiative. The achievement of the Indonesia-Angola

PTA will not only improve economic relations between the two countries but can also serve as

a stepping stone to elevate Indonesia-Angola friendly relations from an ordinary partnership to

a comprehensive and dynamic partnership.

Based on the RCA-CMSA product classication analysis, the proposed PTA would further expand

trade relations, including their respective suggested potential products, for instance, Indonesian

exports to Angola, such as palm oil, ferro alloys, copper ores and concentrates, motor cars and

other motor vehicles, cigars of tobacco uncoated paper and paperboard, margarine, footwears,

machines, and metal products. Meanwhile, Angolan exports open to Indonesia are petroleum

and bitumen oil, crude petroleum oil, petroleum gas and other gaseous hydrocarbons, gold,

metal products, machinery, other transportation equipment, oilcake and other solid residues,

cane or beet sugar, rice, and wheat and meslin. The establishment of the Indonesia-Angola

PTA would pave the way for broader cooperation in diversifying economic commodities across

various products and sectors. The analysis of the potential and opportunities for economic

cooperation between Indonesia and Angola reveals a compelling strategic synergy.

In terms of trade cooperation, Angola has established several economic agreements with

both regional organizations and partner countries. In 2015, Angola signed “Trans-Frontier

Agreements” with the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of Congo, Namibia, and

Zambia to facilitate trade with neighboring countries (WTO, 2015). Furthermore, within the

Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Angola has concluded bilateral

trade agreements with several member states, including Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, and the

Democratic Republic of Congo (Communication CEEAC, 2023). In addition, Angola also has

trade cooperation with several member countries in the Community of Portuguese-Speaking

Countries (CPLP) (VerAngola, 2022).

Angola is also a member of the “Tripartite Free Trade Area” (COMESA-EAC-SADC) 1 as

well as the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which came into force as

of May 30, 2019, and the commencement of trade under the AfCFTA scheme as of January 1,

2021 (East African Community, 2025). For this, Angola has submitted the AfCFTA ratication

instrument as of 4th November 2020 (Olagunju, 2020). The AfCFTA covers cooperation in free

trade in goods and services, investment, intellectual property rights, and competition policy.

1COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, EAC: East African Community, and SADC:

Southern African Development Community.

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Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

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Angola also maintains a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) with the United

States and is among the African countries beneting from preferential market access to the U.S.

under the AGOA (Africa Growth and Opportunity Act) (ITA, 2023; USTR, 2025). However,

Angola’s lack of experience in negotiating bilateral free trade agreements may pose a unique

challenge to advancing a potential Indonesia–Angola PTA. Nonetheless, Indonesia's experience

in successfully establishing PTA trade cooperation with Mozambique (one of the CPLP member

countries) on 27th August 2019, which has been enforced in both countries since 6th June

2022, can serve as a reference for the success story in realizing the Indonesia-Angola PTA. The

Indonesia-Mozambique PTA (IM-PTA) is Indonesia's rst free trade agreement on the African

continent (Larasati, 2021).

Geographically, Angola holds a strategic position as a gateway to sub-Saharan and Central

African markets through its membership in SADC and AfCFTA, as well as its sea access,

which directly connects it to major markets such as the United States, Europe, and Asia. This

makes Angola a promising logistics hub for the distribution of goods, including Indonesian-

manufactured products, such as textiles, electronics, and pharmaceuticals. In addition, Angola's

major infrastructure projects, such as the development of trade corridors and the revitalization of

cross-border railway networks, oer promising opportunities for investment and collaboration

in the transport sector, which Indonesian logistics and infrastructure companies can leverage to

improve connectivity and supply chain eciency across the region.

Although there is no suggested Indonesian outbound investment in Angola (based on the RCA-

CMSA product classication analysis), as an initial guidance, Indonesian outbound investment

strategy in Angola could be geared towards the priority sectors oered by Angola's Investment

Promotion Agency (AIPEX) and the opportunities available in Angola's Special Economic Zones

(SEZs). AIPEX prioritizes the economic diversication agenda and welcome infrastructures

project development. Apart from that, AIPEX also emphasizes the importance of investment in

agriculture, particularly in the production of high-quality seeds, the manufacture of fertilizers

and animal feed, and the development of supporting infrastructure such as cold storage

facilities and aquaculture systems. To capitalize on this opportunity, the investment strategy

can be directed at establishing production plants or forming joint ventures in the construction

and infrastructure sectors. The Angolan government provides a range of scal incentives to

attract foreign investment, including tax rebates ranging from 20% to 90%, depending on the

investment zone (AIPEX, 2021).

Moreover, in addition to investment and development projects in Angola, the cooperation can also

be expanded through technical cooperation under the Indonesia-Aid program. This cooperation

can be directed towards a capacity-building program and the deployment of Indonesian experts

to Angola to share expertise and transfer knowledge and skills to support the implementation

Nadia Sinta Rindiani, Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, Mochammad As'adur Roq

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178

of technical projects in strategic sectors. Through this strategy, Indonesia aims to establish a

mutually benecial partnership with Angola. By leveraging Angola’s investment incentives

and optimizing Indonesia’s knowledge, skills, and technologies, the strategy not only expands

Indonesia’s export opportunities but also contributes to Angola’s economic diversication.

Conclusion and policy recommendations

Indonesia and Angola have cordial diplomatic relations, but their economic cooperation is

viewed as limited and underutilized. Thus, both countries need to explore further to strengthen

economic relations, particularly trade and investment cooperation. Based on the RCA-CMSA

Product Classication Model analysis, both countries have strategic opportunities to strengthen

bilateral economic relations.

The ndings indicate that Indonesia has 348 products with potential for export to the Angolan

market. Export strategies may be directed towards highly competitive products such as palm oil

and its fractions, whether or not rened (excl. chemically modied), ferro alloys, copper ores

and concentrates, motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport,

cigars of tobacco, uncoated paper and paperboard, margarine, footwear, machines, and metal

products. Meanwhile, there are 645 suggested Indonesian imported products from Angola,

including petroleum and bitumen oil, crude petroleum oil, petroleum gas and other gaseous

hydrocarbons, gold, metal products, machinery, other transportation equipment, oilcake and

other solid residues, cane or beet sugar, rice, and wheat and meslin.

In terms of investment potentials, the analysis reveals that there are 46 products identied

as promising collaboration for Indonesian inbound investment from Angola including cocoa

powder, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, and cocoa butter, fat and oil,

and as well other agro-industrial products such as coee, pepper, our, meal and powder of

peas, beans, lentils and other dried leguminous vegetables, starches inulin, fruits, nuts and other

edible parts of plants, prepared or preserved, whether or not containing, and extracts, essences

and concentrates, of coee, tea or maté and preparations. In the manufacturing sector, there are

opportunities in products such as acyclic alcohols, monitors and projectors, not incorporating

television reception apparatus; reception apparatus, motorcycles, incl. mopeds, and cycles tted

with an auxiliary motor, with or without side-cars, cement, incl. cement clinkers, whether or

not coloured, halogenated derivatives of hydrocarbons, saturated acyclic monocarboxylic acids

and their anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids, oxygen-function amino-compounds,

and mineral or chemical nitrogenous fertilisers. The proposed investment in Indonesia would

be welcome, as the proposed Angolan investment aligns with the Indonesian Long-Term Plan

2025-2045, including the downstream industrialization agenda.

KAIRÓS, revista de ciencias económicas, juridicas y administrativas, 9(16), pp. 158-182. Primer Semestre de 2026

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Indonesia–Angola trade and investment potential: a product classication model using revealed comparative advantage and constant

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179

Meanwhile, there is no suggested Indonesian outbound investment in Angola, but Indonesia

could consider the investment opportunities oered by AIPEX and available in Angola's SEZs.

AIPEX prioritizes the economic diversication agenda and welcome infrastructures project

development and agricultural investment. Apart from that, the cooperation can also be extended

to technical cooperation, including capacity-building programs and the sharing of expertise to

support the implementation of technical projects in strategic sectors. Through this strategy,

both countries could establish a mutually benecial partnership.

The study also suggests that both countries should establish the Indonesia-Angola PTA to

enhance bilateral economic relations. The Indonesian government submitted a zero draft of

Indonesia-Angola Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) to the Angolan Government in 2017.

The realization of the Indonesia-Angola PTA will not only strengthen bilateral economic

relations but could also be a stepping stone toward elevating Indonesia-Angola friendly relations

from an ordinary partnership to a comprehensive and dynamic partnership. Besides, both

countries have a strategic geographic location as gateways and hubs for trade and investment.

Geographically, Angola holds a strategic position as a gateway to Sub-Saharan and Central

African markets through its membership in SADC and AfCFTA, as well as its sea access, which

directly connects it to major markets such as the United States, Europe, and Asia. Meanwhile,

Indonesia could at least become a gateway and hub for Angola to the ASEAN market.

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